MLB Power Rankings: Braves, Cubs take a dive; plus prospects on the brink (2024)

By Tim Britton, Andy McCullough and Stephen J. Nesbitt

Every week,​ we​ ask a selected group of our baseball​ writers​ — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.

You may have caught wind of what Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes had cooking in Chicago the other day and thought: Man, why can’t my team get a guy like that?

It’s a fair and common gripe, and here’s how that could happen. First, it’s important to identify when a once-in-a-decade prospect will be draft-eligible. Once that’s nailed down, talk your team into torpedoing its win-loss record for a year or two (or more, to be safe). Then work some magic in the draft lottery, win the No. 1 pick, draft the kid and offer him $9.2 million to sign.

There, you’ve got yourself an uber-prospect. Please don’t break him.

Meanwhile, every fan base (and most front offices) have a prospect waiting in the minors who they’ve mentally folded into their team’s plans for this season. For this week’s power rankings, we picked each team’s most impactful prospect who could debut this season. While we generally avoided prospects who’ve already reached the majors, a few standouts were included.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 33-17
Last Power Ranking: 1

Prospect to watch: RHP River Ryan

The players currently in the minor leagues with the best chance to help the Dodgers are probably James Outman and Miguel Vargas; the prospect with the best chance to help them hasn’t yet played in the minor leagues this year. Fun dynamic! The Dodgers are taking it slow with Ryan early in the season, given the shoulder fatigue he felt at the end of last season, when his 104 innings were double his previous high from college or pro ball. There are fewer questions about what Ryan can bring to the mound than how often he can bring it. The velocity is premium, even by today’s standards, and both the slider and curveball can play. While Ryan likely won’t be a traditional starter for the Dodgers at any point this season, he can definitely be a useful member of the staff in 2024. — Tim Britton

2. New York Yankees

Record: 33-16
Last Power Ranking: 5

Prospect to watch: OF Jasson Domínguez

The good news for the Yankees is that Domínguez, the Martian who looked so promising last season, is recovering well from Tommy John surgery. Domínguez started playing in Low-A rehab games last week and has been stinging the baseball. The even better news? The Yankees are playing so well that there is no immediate need to rush him. If he stays healthy and keeps hitting, Domínguez could supplant Alex Verdugo in left field or siphon away at-bats from designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton. But Stanton has been clubbing the baseball this month and Verdugo has been perfectly adequate in left. So the Yankees can afford to let Domínguez take his time, like all 20 days of his ongoing rehab assignment, as he adjusts to hitting with a surgically repaired elbow. Even then, they can option him to the minors and let him get more seasoning before bringing him back for the postseason push. — Andy McCullough

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 34-14
Last Power Ranking: T-3

Prospect to watch: RHP Griff McGarry

The Philadelphia starting rotation has been excellent, and the early returns on 2020 first-round pick Mick Abel with Triple-A Lehigh Valley have been mixed. Abel has struggled to command the baseball and find a rhythm while combating some wretched early spring weather. So it may be more likely the Phillies will receive a mid-summer contribution from McGarry, who has shifted into a bullpen role after stalling out as a starter last season. McGarry’s fastball velocity has been stagnant despite rebuilding his delivery, but at least he is throwing strikes. The team’s best minor-league talent is in the lower levels. Or, in the case of Andrew Painter, recovering from injury. — McCullough

4. Baltimore Orioles

Record: 29-16
Last Power Ranking: T-3

Prospect to watch: IF Jackson Holliday

We shouldn’t let Holliday’s brutal April cameo — two hits and 18 strikeouts in 36 plate appearances — lower his ceiling. After all, Holliday is still just 20. He is only two years removed from playing against Oklahoma teenagers. The Orioles made the necessary decision to send Holliday, who entered the season as the sport’s consensus No. 1 prospect, back to Triple A after the rough showing. Holliday can benefit from spending extended time at the upper levels of the minors (even if the upper levels of the minors aren’t what they used to be). With Jorge Mateo playing well at second base, there’s no need to microwave Holliday’s development. He’s posted an on-base percentage of about .400 since returning to the minors. He could use the summer to regain some confidence and aid the Orioles in the fall. — McCullough

5. Atlanta Braves

Record: 27-17
Last Power Ranking: 2

Prospect to watch: RHP Hurston Waldrep

Atlanta’s starting rotation contains a Spencer Strider-sized hole. (Extra points if anyone can fill the mustache.) Bryce Elder has struggled in the majors. Neither Dylan Dodd nor AJ Smith-Shawver has wowed observers in the minors. So maybe Waldrep, a first-round pick in 2023, can make a big jump from his current perch in Double-A Mississippi. He possesses a nasty splitter, which aids a fastball featuring excellent velocity but so-so movement. The splitter might be enough to merit a big-league audition unless the Braves attempt to fill that Strider-sized hole at the trade deadline. —McCullough

6. Cleveland Guardians

Record: 31-17
Last Power Ranking: 10

Prospect to watch: OF George Valera

The Guardians have graduated several top prospects in the past year, and now that Kyle Manzardo is in the majors (and slumping), it’s unclear whether the position players in the upper levels of the minors will be more than part-time contributors. Valera is no longer looked at as a top-50 prospect — batting below the Mendoza Line at Triple A won’t help that, either — but when healthy, he gives the Guardians a profile that could be useful: a left-handed hitter with power and on-base skills. Their pinch hitters this season are 4-for-30 (.133). Valera could provide value as a platoon starter against right-handers and otherwise beef up the bench-bat options at manager Stephen Vogt’s disposal late in games. — Stephen J. Nesbitt

7. Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 27-20
Last Power Ranking: 8

Prospect to watch: RHP Jacob Misiorowski

Two top Brewers prospects, Tyler Black and Robert Gasser, debuted in the past month, and Misiorowski is making a compelling case for a call-up as well. The Athletic’sJim Bowden wrote recently that Misiorowski, currently working as a starter, is MLB-ready as a back-end reliever. The 6-foot-7 righty has hellacious stuff. But the 100 mph fastball, 2.32 ERA and 12.8 K/9 don’t tell the whole story. Double-A hitters are twice as likely to draw a walk against Misiorowski than get a hit. The 7.3 BB/9 will likely come down, but by how much? The Brewers’ 3.80 reliever ERA ranks 12th in the majors — down from second last season — as they’ve been without injured closer Devin Williams. — Nesbitt

8. Seattle Mariners

Record: 26-22
Last Power Ranking: 9

Prospect to watch: IF Ryan Bliss

A second-round pick out of Auburn, Bliss’ size belies his bat. He hit 23 long balls between two levels last season, when he was traded to Seattle from Arizona in the Paul Sewald deal, and he has five homers so far this season for Triple-A Tacoma. His carrying tool in the majors is likelier to be his speed. Bliss’ 23 steals already rank fifth in all the minors. At worst, he’s a bench weapon late in games for a team angling for October. At best, he’s another option on an infield that hasn’t quite found its everyday mix. — Britton

9. Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 25-24
Last Power Ranking: 13

Prospect to watch: IF Junior Caminero

Isaac Paredes has been Tampa Bay’s best hitter this season. He entered Monday’s games leading the team in homers (nine), batting average (.309), slugging percentage (.519), OPS (.915), you name it. Paredes also plays third base, the position occupied in Triple-A Durham by Caminero, who was Keith Law’s No. 5 prospect in baseball to start the season and has continued to play well in 2024. There had been discussion in the past of Caminero moving to shortstop, but scouts doubt his defense there, and he’s usually at third for the Bulls. Something has to give for Caminero to make sense on the big-league roster. He spent a couple of games last week at second base, a position currently used as a revolving door in the majors. — McCullough

10. Kansas City Royals

Record: 30-19
Last Power Ranking: 14

Prospect to watch: OF Gavin Cross

The Royals were one of three teams, along with the Astros and Athletics, that didn’t have a player on Keith Law’s 2024 preseason top-100 prospect ranking. (Single-A catcher Blake Mitchell just missed.) The cupboard isn’t bare but isn’t brimming, either. In Cross’ case, let’s blame ticks. That’s right. Ticks. Cross, the No. 9 pick in 2022, was awful at High A last year before being diagnosed with Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, a tick-borne illness that sapped his strength. He’s back after that lost season and hitting like his old self, slashing .298/.387/.450 with some speed at Double-A Northwest Arkansas. He could find his way into the Royals’ outfield this season. — Nesbitt

11. Minnesota Twins

Record: 24-23
Last Power Ranking: 6

Prospect to watch: OF Emmanuel Rodriguez

Shortstop Brooks Lee is a step ahead on the minor-league ladder, but a lower back injury has made his 2024 forecast unclear. Rodriguez, on the other hand, has made things incredibly clear with his bat. He wants to be Minnesota-bound soon. Still only 21, Rodriguez has a 1.028 OPS, with six homers and nine steals, as the third-youngest player in the Double-A Texas League. That power-speed combo is muddled by a high strikeout rate but given how he’s faring in his first look at upper-level pitching, he could be a star. The Twins have five outfielders on the roster, but Rodriguez could certainly be a top-three option later this season. — Nesbitt

Emmanuel Rodriguez absolutely crushed this first pitch off Craig Kimbrel for his first HR of the spring 💣

The ball was hit 114.6mph 👀#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/ogEmC6agE9

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) March 4, 2024

12. Chicago Cubs

Record: 26-22
Last Power Ranking: 7

Prospect to watch: RHP Cade Horton

The Cubs’ rotation has been one of the best in baseball this season, despite its elder statesman’s struggles. But it would be a surprise if they aren’t calling on Horton at some point this season. Horton, the No. 7 pick in 2022, blew away Double-A hitters (1.25 ERA in 10 starts between 2023 and 2024) and earned a promotion to Iowa earlier this month. He’s given up 11 runs in his first 12 innings at Triple A, but once his command settles, he should make quick gains again. Horton’s fastball runs into the upper 90s, but his out pitch is the slider. He’s developed a changeup to give another option against left-handed hitters. — Nesbitt

13. San Diego Padres

Record: 25-25
Last Power Ranking: 12

Prospect to watch: RHP Adam Mazur

Mazur dominated Double A with San Antonio, posting an ERA below 2.00 and just five walks in six starts. It’s been rockier through two starts with the El Paso Chihuahuas in Triple A, though take that with a grain of salt since both were at a notorious hitters’ park in Las Vegas. The thing Mazur has going for him is the opportunity at the big-league level. Joe Musgrove is out, and neither Matt Waldron nor Randy Vásquez has pitched well in the back half of the rotation. Mazur looks primed to get the next chance. — Britton

14. Houston Astros

Record: 21-27
Last Power Ranking: 19

Prospect to watch: OF Pedro León

Joey Loperfido had to go and get himself promoted before we came up with the idea for this exercise, and José Abreu is just beyond a reasonable definition of “prospect.” So that leaves us with our cautious optimism for what León has done in his third go-round in Triple A. A huge international signing back in 2021, León stagnated in Sugar Land the past two seasons with an OPS below .800 and a strikeout rate approaching 30 percent. So far this season, though, he’s cut five percentage points off his strikeout rate, is chasing less, and is capitalizing on more advantage counts for extra bases. While Houston has found its stride over the past two weeks, its offense has remained inconsistent. In an ideal world, of course, León isn’t required to spark the lineup. Little has gone ideally for the Astros yet this season. — Britton

15. Texas Rangers

Record: 24-24
Last Power Ranking: 11

Prospect to watch: LHP Antoine Kelly

Kelly, currently with Triple-A Round Rock, missed three weeks earlier this season with a rotator cuff strain and departed his last outing after just six pitches with what the team called a cramp in his right arm. So health is a real qualifier here. But when Kelly is feeling his best, hitters are not. The lefty struck out 79 in 57 1/3 innings last season between Double and Triple A, firing a triple-digit fastball and a nasty slider.

The Rangers could use the help in the bullpen. Texas’ reliever ERA is up over 5.00, and Bruce Bochy is still cycling through anyone and everyone to find the right mix later in games. Kelly should be one of those options soon enough. — Britton

16. Boston Red Sox

Record: 24-24
Last Power Ranking: 15

Prospect to watch: LHP Zach Penrod

It would not make much sense for the Red Sox to rush the development of some of its top-tier prospects, like shortstop Marcelo Mayer, 2023 first-round pick Kyle Teel or outfielder Roman Anthony. Those three have an estimated arrival time of 2025, and the Sox are caught in their usual cycle of being a decent club stuck in the sport’s toughest division. So how about some instant aid for the bullpen in the form of a lefty signed out of indie ball? Penrod, 27, doesn’t have great command, but he’s got solid velocity and a good changeup. He’s been carving up Double-A lineups. Like most things related to the Sox in recent years, this one produces the shrug emoji. — McCullough

17. Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 22-26
Last Power Ranking: 16

Prospect to watch: RHP Cristian Mena

Acquired from the White Sox for Dominic Fletcher in the offseason, Mena is still one of the youngest starters in Triple A at 21. The right-hander makes up for his relative lack of fastball velocity — that’s what we call sitting 92 and touching 94 these days — with excellent secondary stuff, including a changeup, slider and curveball. Mena will need to harness his walks, which have gone up in each of the past two seasons, to successfully navigate big-league lineups. The ceiling here isn’t Zac Gallen, but the floor may contend with what the Diamondbacks have received so far from Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry and Slade Cecconi in the back half of their rotation. — Britton

18. San Francisco Giants

Record: 23-25
Last Power Ranking: 21

Prospect to watch: LHP Carson Whisenhunt

Whisenhunt’s start so far in Triple A is what you’d call “inauspicious.” He’s walking more batters, serving up a bunch of home runs and not looking like a mid-rotation big-league starter anytime soon. But hey, who among us hasn’t given up a couple of long balls in Reno (as Whisenhunt did in a road start there), and who hasn’t responded to his first exposure to the altitude of the Pacific Coast League with lesser command? These are the kinds of trifles you dismiss because, well, Whisenhunt still strikes so many guys out. He’s punching out a third of hitters in Triple A with his dominant two-pitch mix of fastball and changeup. Would you prefer a starter possess a third pitch? You would. Would you trade a mediocre third pitch to have this level of changeup as your main off-speed delivery? In a heartbeat. — Britton

19. Detroit Tigers

Record: 23-24
Last Power Ranking: 17

Prospect to watch: RHP Jackson Jobe

A more immediate impact will be made by 2B/3B Jace Jung, who has an .878 OPS at Triple A. But if Jobe arrives later this season, it’ll be the closest thing we see to Skenes’ anticipated debut. Jobe, the third overall pick in 2021, has a 2.16 ERA at Double-A Erie, though he’s currently nursing a hamstring strain. The Tigers have solid options in their rotation for now, but if injuries arise as the season progresses, they could get more aggressive in advancing Jobe. They have so far kept his starts short, in the range of 60 pitches, and he has annihilated Double-A hitters, with 13 K/9 and a 1.02 WHIP (despite an inflated walk rate). He’s not a finished product, but at 21 he looks ready to get big leaguers out. — Nesbitt

20. New York Mets

Record: 21-26
Last Power Ranking: 20

Prospect to watch: RHP Blade Tidwell

In a perfect world, the two prize prospects the Mets acquired from last summer’s teardown — outfielder Drew Gilbert and infielder Luisangel Acuña — would fit this billing. Alas. Gilbert has an injured hamstring. Acuña hasn’t been hitting in Triple A. Both should be fine, in the long term. Neither is on track to make much of a splash in 2024. Even so, the Mets’ farm system looks better than in the past. In particular, a pair of pitchers could debut later this year, as Christian Scott already has. Tidwell, a second-round pick in 2022, was just promoted to Triple-A Syracuse. Brandon Sproat, a second-rounder in 2023, may not be a Rumble Pony in Binghamton for much longer, either. — McCullough

21. Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 21-25
Last Power Ranking: 18

Prospect to watch: IF Orelvis Martinez

Martinez, a 22-year-old infielder with surprising power, does not profile as a panacea for Toronto’s offensive woes. But the Blue Jays are not in a position to worry about square pegs and round holes. The club is fading fast in the American League East, in part because the offense entered Monday’s games ranked 25th in the majors with a .665 OPS. Martinez could, in theory, provide a boost. He has spent most of the season at second base for Triple-A Buffalo but recently shifted to third, a position occupied on the big-league club by Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ernie Clement. Toronto may need to live with Martinez’s defensive shakiness if he can spark the bottom third of the lineup. — McCullough

22. Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 22-26
Last Power Ranking: 24

Prospect to watch: RHP Mike Burrows

Ten days ago, this blurb would have been about Bubba Chandler, the Pirates’ top-ranked pitching prospect yet to reach the majors. Then he gave up nine runs in 4 1/3 innings and hit the injured list with forearm tightness. Womp womp. Because Paul Skenes has already debuted and because the Double-A guys aren’t lighting the world on fire, we’re going off the board with Burrows, who is on the injured list as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Should Burrows return to the mound on schedule later this summer, he’ll be a late-season option to upgrade the back of the Pirates’ rotation. Those within the organization have long considered Burrows an overlooked prospect. — Nesbitt

23. Cincinnati Reds

Record: 19-28
Last Power Ranking: 22

Prospect to watch: IF Noelvi Marte

These power rankings are primarily looking for impact prospects who’ve yet to get their cup of coffee in the majors, so picking Marte is going against the spirit of the thing a bit. But for most of the other options — unless RHP Rhett Lowder climbs from High A to the majors this season — we’d really be stretching the definition of “impact.” Marte, who’s missing the first 80 games this season due to a suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy, was ranked No. 17 on Keith Law’s preseason prospect list and hit .316/.366/.456 in a 35-game sample with the Reds last season. His return will give the shorthanded Reds considerably more flexibility with their infield arrangement. — Nesbitt

24. St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 21-26
Last Power Ranking: 25

Prospect to watch: RHP Sem Robberse

It’s tempting to invoke the name Markevian “Tink” Hence here, but the Cardinals don’t appear to be in a hurry to rush him from Double-A Springfield to the majors, so let’s go with Robberse instead. The Cardinals have four healthy starters and a spare Matthew Liberatore. Their 4.82 rotation ERA ranks 25th in the majors. The 33-and-up rotation idea isn’t working. Why not try the 22-year-old Dutchman? Robberse, acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade last summer, was roughed up over the weekend when his punishment for pitching into the eighth inning was having six runs charged to his ledger. Still, he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across nine starts for Triple-A Memphis. — Nesbitt

25. Washington Nationals

Record: 21-25
Last Power Ranking: 23

Prospect to watch: OF James Wood

The Juan Soto trade already looks like a winner for the Nationals, given the performances of shortstop CJ Abrams and starter MacKenzie Gore. The arrival of Wood, the towering 21-year-old center fielder, would only further remind Washingtonians why the team was willing to part with a player like Soto. They got a haul in return for him. Wood might be the best of the bunch. He has been obliterating Triple-A pitchers for Rochester this season, with seven homers and 12 doubles in his first 41 games. With Jacob Young installed in center in the majors, the Nationals might take their time as various veteran corner outfielders return from injuries. But Wood will be there before the season is over, as long as he stays healthy. — McCullough

26. Los Angeles Angels

Record: 19-29
Last Power Ranking: 27

Prospect to watch: The eighth pick in the 2024 draft

If you’re in the Angels organization and have demonstrated any aspect of intriguing talent, you’ve already debuted in the major leagues. Their 2022 first-round draft pick made the majors by April of ’23. Their 2023 first-round draft pick made the majors by August. (Their third- and sixth-round picks from 2022 have also debuted by now.) So if you’re looking for something to watch in the final two months of the Halos’ season, yeah, it’s probably whomever they select eighth on the night of July 14. In his mock draft last week, Keith Law had the Angels taking East Carolina righty Trey Yesavage with the rumor that they’ll “bring him right to the big leagues.” Yep, checks out. — Britton

27. Oakland Athletics

Record: 19-30
Last Power Ranking: 26

Prospect to watch: SS Jacob Wilson

The sixth pick in last summer’s draft, Wilson was just bumped up to Triple-A Las Vegas after shredding the pitching in the Texas League — a .455 average and .705 slugging. He’s gifted defensively at shortstop, and the A’s have a clear long-term need there. Since Marcus Semien departed after the 2020 season, Oakland has tried to get by with steady defenders and little to no offense from the position.

Astute observers may have noticed that we elided Wilson’s on-base percentage earlier, because well, that’s the rub with Wilson, who walks as often as a suburbanite — just 3.9 percent of the time in his brief pro career. While that approach can work, it requires a special ability to make authoritative contact on pitches outside the strike zone. Wilson ran much higher walk rates in college at Grand Canyon, and bumping that number up in Vegas could make a summer promotion more appealing. — Britton

28. Miami Marlins

Record: 16-33
Last Power Ranking: 30

Prospect to watch: RHP Max Meyer

It would be disingenuous to suggest Meyer will make significant noise on the big-league roster in 2024. The Marlins optioned him back to the minors earlier this season in deference to their scant postseason hopes. The team wants to protect the prized right arm of Meyer, the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, and hopes he does not meet the fate of injured Marlins prospects like Sixto Sánchez and Eury Pérez. Meyer has not thrown more than four innings in an outing since returning to Triple-A Jacksonville on April 20. But when he returns to the majors, likely near the end of the summer, he might be the best pitcher on Miami’s staff. — McCullough

29. Colorado Rockies

Record: 15-31
Last Power Ranking: 29

Prospect to watch: OF Zac Veen

The ninth overall pick in 2020, Veen dropped down prospect rankings with underwhelming results and a season-ending wrist injury last summer. Back in Double-A Hartford for a third different season, the wrist looks healthy for the first time since early 2022 and the results have shifted so far, fueling cautious excitement that the versatile Veen is putting it all together. Veen’s .326/.418/.568 slash line is rendered more impressive in the pitcher-friendly Eastern League (especially in the early-season cold), and his athleticism is particularly tantalizing when you picture him operating at Coors Field. Nolan Jones broke out in the Colorado outfield last year, and Brenton Doyle is off to an unexpected offensive start this year. There’s room for Veen to make that an intriguing trio by season’s end. — Britton

30. Chicago White Sox

Record: 14-34
Last Power Ranking: 28

Prospect to watch: SS Colson Montgomery

White Sox shortstop Paul DeJong leads the team with six homers, but he’s still a below-average hitter and is certainly not blocking Montgomery’s path to the majors. Montgomery, drafted No. 22 overall out of high school in 2021, was limited by oblique and back injuries last season but still posted a preposterous .456 OBP while having as many walks as strikeouts. He’s struggled with this stick so far this season, batting .228 with a .343 OBP, so it’s no surprise he wasn’t an early-season call-up. But after an ice-cold first month of the season at Triple-A Charlotte, the 22-year-old is starting to warm up in May. He could be in Chicago before long. — Nesbitt

(Top photo of Ronald Acuña Jr.: Matthew Grimes Jr. / Atlanta Braves/Getty Images)