Trump’s Guilty. Does Anyone Care? (2024)

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[PHONE DIALING]

astead herndon

Hi, my name is Astead Herndon. I’m a reporter with “The New York Times.” I was looking for Kurt Wallach.

kurt wallach

That’s me.

astead herndon

Thank you so much for picking up. Do you think that you have maybe 5, 10 minutes to chat?

kurt wallach

Sure.

astead herndon

Kurt, can you tell me a little bit about yourself, what part of the country you’re in, what do you do for a living, how old are you?

kurt wallach

All right. So I’m 63. I’ve lived in Arizona for the last 26 years after growing up in the New York City area. I’m retired from full-time employment, although I work security for the Phoenix Suns and every other event that goes on at the arena out here.

astead herndon

Awesome. And the other question I would ask is, do you consider yourself like a Democrat, Republican, independent, anything like that?

kurt wallach

I’m a Republican, although I have some liberal leanings.

astead herndon

Gotcha. Well, one of the specific reasons we’re calling you is because back in October, you were featured in a poll that asked a couple questions about your vote. And in particular, I understand that you said that you were planning to vote for Trump, but also that you would change your vote to vote for Biden if Trump was criminally convicted and sentenced to prison. Is that right?

kurt wallach

That’s right.

astead herndon

I’m wondering, as you can expect, how you feel now, considering in the last week, Donald Trump was criminally convicted of 34 felony counts. How did you feel about that conviction, and has it, indeed, changed how you were thinking about voting?

kurt wallach

Well, I was not happy with the conviction. I think it was a crime that in another world, if he was another person, nobody would have touched it. But since they went after him — and they got him because, technically, he did stuff he shouldn’t have done that, technically, is a crime. He deserves to get convicted. If they went and bothered to go after him, they got him. In terms of my vote, at this point, I would still vote for Trump.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

astead herndon

In the days since a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, there’s really only one big question people are asking. Will this matter in the general election? And while it’s certainly too early to tell, there was one group of voters in particular that I’ve been thinking about.

Last October, “The Times” and Siena College conducted a poll, in which they asked Donald Trump supporters what would happen if he were to be convicted and sentenced to prison. Would you change your vote? About 7 percent of Trump supporters said in that scenario, they would switch their vote to Joe Biden. But importantly, the poll question didn’t specify which case.

Now that we know, I called back some of those 7 percent and also checked in with “The Times” polling team to understand how a felony conviction in late May might affect how people decide what to do in November. From “The New York Times,” I’m Astead Herndon. This is “The Run Up.”

astead herndon

Well, can you take me back to the original moment in October? What were you thinking when you gave that answer? Were you thinking it was going to be a different case? Is there a case that would have swayed you? Because, I mean, at some point, you did think a conviction might get you enough to move toward Biden.

kurt wallach

Yeah, so I was thinking along the lines of the January 6 uprising. If you went after him on that and you were able to get him on something like that, that might make me change my mind. But this thing that they got him on? I’m sorry, it just doesn’t sway me.

astead herndon

If I could ask more specifically, like, what of it doesn’t sway you? Is it that it’s a business, kind of white collar crime? Is it that it’s information that was already in the public eye, the kind of allegations of hush money payment? I mean, because I —

kurt wallach

OK —

astead herndon

Yeah, go ahead.

kurt wallach

— stop right there. So when you say hush money, that’s not a crime. But that’s all the media says. Like every time you read about it, hear about it, it’s the hush money trial. He wasn’t being charged with paying off somebody to shut their mouths. It was, hey, I lied on paper. And so I did some bookkeeping stuff I shouldn’t have done.

astead herndon

Right, for the purposes of trying to win the election.

kurt wallach

And you tell me that Biden suddenly doing an executive order where he makes it look like he’s going to control the border when he hasn’t since this whole thing started — that’s to get reelected. So you always play something to put yourself in the best light. And that’s politics. It’s, you make promises that you can’t keep. That’s just the way the game is played.

astead herndon

Right.

kurt wallach

So, yeah. So technically, yes, they made it stick. They got a conviction. But to me, eh, no big deal.

astead herndon

I want to be clear, though. If there was a trial on the January 6 case and Trump was convicted in federal court of trying to overturn the election, you would have not voted for Donald Trump?

kurt wallach

I would have not had voted for Donald Trump. And I wish that the Republican Party would delist him as a nominee and put somebody else to go up against Biden. And that person might get my vote instead.

astead herndon

Mm-hmm. But because there is not that trial and there’s only been this state-level trial so far, you’re comfortable with still voting for Donald Trump as the Republican nominee?

kurt wallach

Yes.

astead herndon

But I imagine you saw what happened on the 6th, right? Like —

kurt wallach

I know. Yeah, we all saw it.

astead herndon

Yeah.

kurt wallach

We’ve seen — all I saw was a group of people, many, many of whom came out to join the party, celebrated, protested, peaceful. I saw another group who decided they were going to be bold and crazy and go into the Capitol, and some damaged things, some not damaged things, take it as a photo op.

Is that, in itself, more of an uproar than every other — let’s call it BLM-related riot in any city center? No, this one January 6 thing pales in comparison to all of what else went on and had to be dealt with. So, I get it. It’s the Capitol. It’s sacred. It’s democracy that’s sacred. But when you got people taking over Portland and Seattle, and you’ve got riots in the streets and people burning down liquor stores — and to me, the country went through a lot worse.

astead herndon

I hear you. In Joe Biden’s defense, he did condemn the element of destruction or violence that was at those 2020 protests. He did not encourage that in the same way that Donald Trump did encourage or help gather folks at the Capitol on the 6th. It doesn’t seem exactly to me like those actions are one-to-one the same in relationship to the politician.

kurt wallach

Oh, but you had politicians on the Democrat side who were condoning and applauding and, I’ll say, inciting. And if Biden wants to say, well, I condemned it, well, did you stop it? Did you rally all the Democrat leaders in those states and cities and say, put an end to this? No, you didn’t.

astead herndon

Are you definitely going to vote in November?

kurt wallach

Oh, yeah, I’m voting. There’s a lot of stuff that’s on the ballot. I got to vote for everything from local to head of the ticket.

astead herndon

Mm-hmm. Thank you so much. You have a good rest of your day.

kurt wallach

I appreciate your time. Good luck out there.

astead herndon

Yeah, appreciate it. Have a good day.

kurt wallach

All right. Bye now.

astead herndon

Bye.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

astead herndon

After talking to Kurt —

astead herndon

Hi, my name is Astead Herndon.

dakota jordan

Hello?

astead herndon

Hello? Can you hear me?

dakota jordan

I sure can.

astead herndon

— we reached another Arizona voter.

astead herndon

Yeah, my name is Astead Herndon. I’m a reporter with “The New York Times.” I was looking for Dakota Jordan.

dakota jordan

I’m Dakota Jordan.

astead herndon

Yeah, thank you so much for picking up. Dakota, can you just tell me a little bit about yourself, what part of the country you’re in? Do you consider yourself a Democrat or a Republican? Anything like that.

dakota jordan

I live in desert southwest, and I do not consider myself either of those things.

astead herndon

Mm-hmm. Do you consider yourself more of an independent, or is there any label that you would put on it?

dakota jordan

Still independent on that, I guess right leaning, I suppose.

astead herndon

He also told our “Times” polling colleagues in the fall that he would change his vote to Biden in the event of a conviction.

dakota jordan

I don’t think that we communicated the way that I thought about that very well.

astead herndon

But when we followed up, he said it was a miscommunication.

astead herndon

What do you mean by that? What did you — because what were you intending to communicate?

dakota jordan

So I believe, going back to that conversation and what I can remember from it, I believe I was asked, would you vote for Trump, and then would you vote for him if he was convicted? And I said, I don’t want to vote for him, but I also don’t want to vote for Joe Biden. And then, even if he was convicted, I still wouldn’t want to vote for him. But given the choice between the two, that’s who I would vote for.

astead herndon

Mm-hmm, so that’s how you felt back in October?

dakota jordan

Yeah.

astead herndon

Has anything changed for you in the months following?

dakota jordan

No, not really. I still don’t want to vote for either of those people. But given our phenomenal system, those are the choices that I’m given. So between the two of them, yeah, I guess I’d have to go for the criminal.

astead herndon

Mm-hmm. A lot of people are in this position of not really liking both of their options. What leads you to Trump in that scenario over Biden?

dakota jordan

A couple of things. Number one, under Donald Trump, I had affordable rent, I had affordable cost of living. Under Joe Biden, my cost of living, I’m looking at housing, I’m looking at inflation. I’m looking at these major factors. I’m looking at not only those, I’m looking at the events happening in Israel and Palestine. And I’m seeing the way that we’re handling those situations.

Do I believe that the Palestine thing would change much with Donald Trump? No, I don’t. If anything, I believe it would probably be worse. But looking back at inflation, cost of living, housing, that type of stuff, I have major problems with those. And I believe that Donald Trump, his main goal is to handle that.

astead herndon

So you’re saying your decision to go back to Trump over Biden is based in the belief that you were better off economically in those years versus how you feel now?

dakota jordan

Yeah.

astead herndon

What did you think of the recent conviction of Trump?

dakota jordan

I’m not surprised. I’m not a big fan of Donald Trump’s moral character, I would say, without having personally met the man. I can say what I’ve inferred from him. I sincerely doubt his moral character. So if someone came up and saying he had 34 charges of criminal misconduct, I would, in no way, be surprised.

astead herndon

Why, then, is a lack of moral character or even the reality now of a criminal conviction, why is that not disqualifying for you?

dakota jordan

Because I’m looking at my alternatives. And I see what the alternative has done in the last four years. I believe that that’s worse.

astead herndon

Yeah, I’m saying, I mean, if it’s purely about economics or kind of what the reality was while they were in office, where does moral character factor in to you? Does it factor in to you?

dakota jordan

Ooh, OK. There we go. If I had the choice between candidates with good moral character that would lead our country into a more prosperous time, that would be my candidate, right? That’s who I’m looking for the most. If you were to rank the importance of those two issues, moral character or economic prosperity, I would probably have to go economic prosperity because right now I work too damn hard for too little to be concerned with the exact moral character of the individual that got us there.

astead herndon

Can I ask how you voted in 2020 and in 2016?

dakota jordan

I did not.

astead herndon

You did not vote in 2020?

dakota jordan

I did not.

astead herndon

Did you vote in 2016?

dakota jordan

I did not.

astead herndon

Will you vote this time?

dakota jordan

I absolutely will be.

astead herndon

I’m curious, what makes you motivated to vote this time that didn’t motivate you before?

dakota jordan

I suppose I was four and eight years younger, and the situation at hand didn’t affect me or affected me less, right? As a 22-year-old, I was far less concerned with my economic well-being. Now, that matters to me a lot more. As I’m getting into house purchasing age, as I’m getting into needing to deal with all of the repercussions of these decisions myself, now I’m much more interested in voting and making sure that I have some type of say in what we’re going to accomplish in the next four years.

astead herndon

Well, thank you, Dakota.

dakota jordan

Yeah, absolutely. No worries.

astead herndon

Have a great day.

dakota jordan

You as well. Bye. [MUSIC PLAYING]

astead herndon

Hi, my name is Astead Herndon. I’m a reporter with “The New York Times.” I was looking for Walter Bear.

walter bear

Yes, how can I help you?

astead herndon

Thank you. I appreciate it. Can you tell me a little bit about yourself, Walter? What part of the country you’re in, how old you are, what you do for work, things like that.

walter bear

I’m retired, live in Las Vegas.

astead herndon

Retired and live in Las Vegas, awesome. What did you do before you retired?

walter bear

Oh, I was in real estate.

astead herndon

Are you someone who’s considered themselves a Democrat, Republican, independent? Any political label?

walter bear

I’m not a Democrat. I’m not a Republican. I only vote for who I believe is going to do the job. I don’t care who you represent. If you’re going to do the job and represent the people, then I’m for you.

astead herndon

Well, let me ask specifically about the last couple of elections. Did you vote in 2020 for the presidential race?

walter bear

Yes, I always vote.

astead herndon

Mm-hmm. Do you mind telling me who you voted for in 2016 and 2020?

walter bear

I voted for Obama.

astead herndon

Well, I’m asking in 2016, when it was between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, what’d you do?

walter bear

Oh, I voted for Donald Trump. I did not vote for Hillary.

astead herndon

And what do you do when it was Donald Trump versus Joe Biden four years ago?

walter bear

I vote for Donald Trump. I didn’t vote for Joe Biden.

astead herndon

Well, since you voted for Trump in 2020, I’m wondering what has soured you on him a little bit four years later.

walter bear

Well, it really hasn’t soured on that. I don’t like some of the things he’d been involved in. But then again, it just could be politics, you know?

astead herndon

Anything specifically?

walter bear

Well, his court cases, you know? But then, the court cases are personal, really.

astead herndon

I was going to ask specifically about that. I think you told “The New York Times” polling last fall that you would think about voting for Trump, but you might change if he was convicted. What were you thinking at that time, and what changed?

walter bear

Well, I really wanted to see what was really taking place, to see if he was really guilty of what he had been accused of.

astead herndon

And in this case, you have 34 guilty counts now on falsifying business records. For you, what was your reaction to that verdict?

walter bear

The falsification that is taking place —

I don’t know. I really have mixed emotions about it, really.

astead herndon

Well, take me through that. What are your mixed emotions?

walter bear

Well, is he really guilty? I mean, is this a plan of attack against him? And so I don’t really like the way they’re really slamming him, you know? And I guess I really haven’t kept on top of it like I should have. And sometimes, when you hear the news, it’s not exactly the way it really should be.

astead herndon

So you’re saying that when you mentioned it last time, you were open to seeing what type of evidence emerged, but there’s something about this one that doesn’t seem to have fully convinced you.

walter bear

Well, that I haven’t really been following it.

astead herndon

But you haven’t really been following this one?

walter bear

No, I really haven’t been keeping up with it like I should have. I’ve been involved in a lot of other things, you know? Your personal life sometimes comes before everything else. This is politics, and politics is going to be what politics is, and you can’t stop it.

astead herndon

I totally understand that, especially since you guys still got some months before the presidential race. Do you think you’ll catch up on the news? Do you think that the verdict will matter in terms of how you eventually land?

walter bear

I’m still in favor of Donald Trump, really. Something about Donald, I just — sometime I think he really represents the stand for the truth of the people. Most politician are known for lying. All they do is — all they are is paid liars. They just sit up there and lie. They say one thing and do a complete opposite.

astead herndon

Thank you so much. I really appreciate your time.

walter bear

All right. You have a wonderful day.

astead herndon

Yes, you too. Bye.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

astead herndon

When we come back, how new polling results help us answer the question, does any of this matter?

[MUSIC PLAYING]

astead herndon

Hey, how’s it going?

ruth igielnik

Hey. How’s it going?

astead herndon

Good to see you. How are you?

ruth igielnik

Good. Just finalizing these results.

astead herndon

Oh, awesome. Live, hot from the press.

ruth igielnik

Yeah, you are getting very hot, off the press —

astead herndon

Yeah, yes.

ruth igielnik

— results. [LAUGHS]

astead herndon

Over the past few days, our colleagues at “The Times” and Siena College have been trying to get a quantitative read on how the verdict might be changing the race. They called back 5,000 people who they had talked to in previous surveys and asked the 1,900 who agreed to answer more questions who they would vote for to see if the conviction has put a dent in Trump’s support.

So we lured a colleague away from crunching the numbers on deadline to explain what they found and to talk about who is still undecided on the question of Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

astead herndon

I’m so glad we’re doing this. Can you just introduce yourself and tell me what you do?

ruth igielnik

Yes, I’m Ruth Agulnik. I am our staff editor for news surveys here at “The New York Times.” And I help run our Times-Siena poll.

astead herndon

Yes, a friend of the pod. We wanted to come to you because, of course, the big question in the air after last week’s conviction was how might this matter when we think about the November election. Can you just take me back to last week when the conviction news broke? How did your team start to think about polling?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, so obviously after the conviction broke, we started to wonder what can we learn about how voters’ views have changed or not, right? We really wondered, had their views changed at all? So we wanted to figure out exactly how to revisit these people. So we had this question of whether we should do a new poll or whether we should reach out to people we’d already talked to and see if their views had changed.

And that seemed, right, like a really interesting option for us. We’ve already talked to these people. We know their views. They’ve told us themselves. Let’s call them back.

astead herndon

Right, right. Can you explain exactly what you were asking people?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, so we are asking people a really simple set of questions. We just called them back and asked them who they’re planning to vote for — not even if their vote changed, just who they’re planning to vote for — how likely they are to vote, and then one or two questions whether or not they’re paying attention to the trial and whether they agreed with the verdict. So very simple, very short survey.

astead herndon

Interesting, OK. Well, now take me to these results. What has the poll found?

ruth igielnik

So we found about a two to three percentage point shift in favor of Biden.

astead herndon

OK.

ruth igielnik

So when we looked at this group of people, this subset of people that we recontacted, last time we talked to them, that group was about — let me just look at the results, because we’re finalizing this now. It was plus three for Trump. And when we talked to those people again, it was plus one for Trump. So we saw about a two percentage point shift. Looking at it another way, about 3 percent of Trump supporters moved to Biden.

astead herndon

OK, so if we look at the overall survey, last time you all did this, it was about a plus three advantage for Trump. We’ve seen that number shrink in the post-convention to kind of plus one for Trump, which would tell us that there has been some movement toward Biden. How much can we specifically relate that to the conviction?

ruth igielnik

It’s hard to know. I mean, we did not ask people directly how much it relates to the conviction. There’s some real churn in here, right? People are moving in every direction. They’re moving from Biden to undecided. They’re moving from Trump to undecided. They’re moving from Biden to Trump. The signal we can find in there is the biggest shift was from Trump to Biden. So there was some movement away from Biden, but it wasn’t as large as the movement away from Trump to Biden, which, given the time element, really tells us that that’s probably related to the conviction.

But I do think it’s worth noting that there is a lot of movement and noise in general from the last poll. There’s just some movement in this race, this incredibly close race. These people who are undecided are kind of moving around a lot. They’re kind of noisy.

astead herndon

Interesting. Were you surprised by the result? And how much should I think about a two percentage point movement? Is that a lot? Is that a little? Like, what’s the context?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, that’s the question. I wasn’t surprised, mostly because other people have been doing recontact polls, and this was about in line with what they were seeing. So it was kind of what we expected. Echelon Insights, which is a Republican pollster, did a recontact study. They found two percentage point movements, which makes sense.

And I think the answer is sort of, it’s small but meaningful, right? In these states where the results are really close, most of the states that matter, that will decide the election, Trump and Biden are within two to three percentage points. So that shift could be a real difference maker.

astead herndon

Yeah. Do we know anything about the group that’s still kind of open right now to changing their minds? Is there a specific demographic set or characteristics we could say about the people who are moving in these re-contacts?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, the people who are moving in the re-contacts aren’t necessarily the same as the sort of typical undecided voters we’ve seen this cycle, though there are similarities.

The people who are moving are younger, but a difference is the people who are moving in this survey are a little bit more white, a little bit more educated, a little bit more like we’re seeing as the typical Biden supporter in our last several surveys, suggesting that it’s a little bit of coming home from these people who maybe supported Biden in 2020 are thinking about Trump or curious about Trump, but might be coming back after the verdict.

astead herndon

Yeah, we were particularly interested in the particular group of voters that y’all talked to last fall who said that they would vote for Trump, but they would maybe switch their minds if there was a conviction. It seemed a small group of people, about 7 percent. But it did seem as if that was a kind of open question. Do you remember putting that question together? And how were you all thinking about specifically targeting that group?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, so at the time — it’s interesting to think back to what we were thinking at the time, because at the time, this trial, the Manhattan hush money trial, was not the trial that we expected to be first.

astead herndon

Right.

ruth igielnik

We were thinking at the time about the January 6 trial that we thought was going to — and so we kind of designed some of the questions around that trial, in particular to think we could have a time one and time two where we remeasured people again.

Now, that wasn’t the trial that happened, but we left this question fairly open-ended because we were curious in general to have this pre-point on, if Trump was convicted, which is a very hard hypothetical to people, if Trump was convicted — and in the question, we said convicted and sentenced to prison — how would that change your vote?

And we got about 7 percent of Trump supporters saying that they would switch, which, again, is in line with what we would think, a small but meaningful share. And so we wanted to see if that number would grow or shrink with an actual conviction.

astead herndon

Uh-huh. Now, I know that that is not the group that you all called back this time, but we did actually call some of those people. Can you just tell me why you all chose to focus on the national, rather than this specific group in October?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, I mean, it was really just sort of a resource issue. We wanted to talk to the most recent surveys first, so we looked at our last two surveys, our national survey and our battleground surveys. Those were the two most recent that we did. And we thought if we had enough time and resources, we’d get back to those October folks that were really interesting. And it was just what we could get done in the time that we had.

astead herndon

No, no, totally understandable.

ruth igielnik

But it’s good that you guys talked to them because they are an interesting group.

astead herndon

Yeah, and I was actually going to throw some of that to you. When we talked to some of them, we heard a number of people basically say, yeah, I meant it, but not this trial.

[laughs]

And someone specifically mentioned if it was January 6, they may have changed their mind. Some people mentioned that they just — once this conviction came down, they didn’t see it as really that consequential.

I guess, my question to you is, like, you mentioned a couple of pieces of evidence of people moving from Trump to Biden, but it doesn’t seem like Republicans largely are taking this verdict and shifting any. Is that correct?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, that’s correct. I mean, these shifts are very minor, right? Some people are moving from Trump to Biden, a slightly bigger group, about 4 percent, moving from Trump to undecided. But Republicans, writ large, this didn’t really have an impact on them.

And part of the reason back in October that we’d hoped to focus on the January 6 trial is, from polling from us and others, we asked across the four trials that were likely to happen, which one people take most seriously. And overwhelmingly, Republicans and everyone said January 6.

astead herndon

Totally checks out with what we hear on the road. Yeah, yeah.

ruth igielnik

Yeah, and so I think it’s not surprising that you would hear from these Republican voters who said, yeah, sure, if it was January 6. But in this case, they see it as a long time ago. The hush money payments didn’t really matter. It was kind of a stretch. Some people saw it as very politically motivated. And so, I’m not shocked that you guys heard that when you called people back.

astead herndon

We talked to some people, when we were calling folks back, who said that they actually they had always supported Trump from the first survey. And the survey actually had them down wrong. I will stand what you all do till I die, but how should I understand some of the data mismatches that we hear when we call some people back versus what the data set tells us?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, I mean, it’s a really good question, right? Because that’s real. You guys are calling these people back, and they’re saying that doesn’t match. There are two things that are happening. One is real measurement error. This happens. If you listen to our calls, sometimes people don’t understand what we’re saying. People aren’t always — they’re not aware of the question. And they might give a sort of acquiescing response where they just tell us what they think we want to hear. But the other piece of that is among this group of switchers, these people who are maybe moving their vote a lot, it’s not as salient as it is for a lot of people who are more politically engaged. They don’t remember who they said they were going to vote for because they’re not really sure who they’re going to vote for. And so they’re like, oh, no, last time, I swear I said Joe Biden. But maybe at that time, they were feeling really frustrated with Joe Biden.

If you look at this group of switchers, they’re more politically moderate. They’re more likely to say that they voted for a different candidate in the past or not voted. So some of this is real measurement error. Some of this is, we aren’t always measuring views perfectly. But some of it is, amazingly, to the politically engaged and probably most people listening to this podcast, a lot of people haven’t made up their mind and honestly don’t remember what they said last time because it just wasn’t that important to them.

astead herndon

Yeah, they’re legitimately undecided.

ruth igielnik

Yes, yeah.

astead herndon

So they thought something last time and think something different this time.

ruth igielnik

I know. Like, I swear I didn’t think that last time, but they might have.

astead herndon

Yeah, yeah, yeah. One thing that really is — it bothers me right now. And maybe I’ve just been — this is just my vibe feeling. So you can tell me if this is actually factual. But I’m sick of people acting like Trump is this unbeatable, super strong candidate that nothing impacts.

But I’m like, it feels to me like the evidence points to a very weak Republican candidate, that the party would be well served if someone else was at the top of the ticket. But relative to another unpopular candidate in terms of Joe Biden, he’s doing fine.

So I’m like, it seems to me that when we think about the trial and conviction, it often falls into this category of people saying, oh, another thing where it doesn’t matter, where I’m like, it feels as if swing voters have been holding Donald Trump’s craziness against him for multiple cycles. It feels like it’s baked in. Do you get what I’m saying?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, yeah.

astead herndon

It feels like a switch in framing here is important.

ruth igielnik

I think this is a good point, which is to say, you’re right. It is, when Trump was up against a stronger Democrat previous Joe Biden, he didn’t win. He didn’t do well, because he is a fairly weak Republican. But now that he’s up against a weaker Democratic candidate, current Joe Biden —

astead herndon

[INAUDIBLE] Joe Biden, yeah.

ruth igielnik

— yeah, it’s really challenging for him. Now, the other side of that is, people call him Teflon Don. And when you look at his approval ratings, they are remarkably stable as compared with historic candidates and presidents and public figures. So it is true that he’s not getting these kind of twists and turns that a lot of people are getting. But you’re also right that when he was up against a stronger Democrat, he really didn’t have the strength to fight him.

astead herndon

What, then — if this moment, which I think a lot of people are pointing to as something that could be a sea change in the race, I think there was some evidence there before that could have called that into question. But a lot of people are thinking about this moment as something that could change the race. And if we’re really talking about two percentage points here, if we look ahead, I mean, of course, things will pop up that we don’t know. But if we think to debates or conventions or the kind of normal set plays that we know happen in the campaign trail, are any of those moments threaten to be as big or just as big as the convention, or even bigger?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, I think the debate is a really good one. I mean, I think that the Biden campaign knew that, and that’s part of what that sort of decision to move the debates up earlier could be. I mean, this is something that the Biden campaign doesn’t love when we poll about, but we have a lot of polling about Biden’s age. And this is a huge concern for voters, a huge concern for voters.

astead herndon

Huge.

ruth igielnik

And I think — yeah.

astead herndon

For as much as they want to — you don’t have to say, but I’ll say it. It’s ridiculous that they think that’s a crazy question to ask because it’s a huge concern for people.

ruth igielnik

Right, it’s a huge concern for voters. And so this could be a real switch in the race, right? If Biden does well and doesn’t have these sort of age concerns that people are worried about, much like the State of the Union, it could be a really solid moment for him. If there’s a slip-up or a trip-up, then this could be a real moment in the race. And I think the debates are a real piece of that. And I think that —

astead herndon

Even though it’s so early?

ruth igielnik

Even though it’s so early. I think part of the Biden campaign’s, I think, move to move it early was to make it matter less in the race. There is still going to be a debate in the fall, right? There are two debates. And I think both of them will really matter.

astead herndon

The last question I had specific to the legal questions is when we think of this politically, like does this close the chapter, you think, on Trump’s legal problems and its impact in the election? Would a sentence change anything? You know what I’m saying? Or do we think that this reaction is basically where this chapter ends?

ruth igielnik

Yeah, I mean, assuming the calendar stays as it does, and no additional trials are scheduled, right — everything seems to have been bumped back — I don’t think a lot else changes this. I don’t think a sentence changes this. I think, I mean, you have people who are more expert than me on this that will tell you that he’s probably not going to be sentenced to jail. And so I don’t think that any of the other sentences would necessarily change this.

In this survey and in our past surveys, we ask about attention to the Trump legal troubles, and very few people are paying attention. I think a quarter say they’re paying a lot of attention. So it’s hard to feel like any of the subsequent legal things really move the needle for these groups.

astead herndon

Uh-huh, uh-huh. Thank you so much, Ruth. This was so helpful.

ruth igielnik

Yeah, thanks for having me. Thanks. That was fun.

astead herndon

Yeah, no, fun.

ruth igielnik

Yes.

astead herndon

It was interesting, though, the callbacks.

ruth igielnik

Yeah, it’s — yeah.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

astead herndon

What Ruth is saying really checks out to me. In our days of making calls —

[PHONE DIALING]

— we heard from a lot of people —

astead herndon

Hi, my name is Astead Herndon. I’m a reporter with “The New York Times.” I was looking for Bryan Dickinson.

I was looking for Joyce Cooper. I was looking for Melanie Oaxaca.

I was looking for Stephen Henry.

astead herndon

— in a lot of different fields.

speaker 1

I live up in North Georgia. I’m a trucker.

speaker 2

I am a manager in corporate America.

speaker 3

I live outside of Pittsburgh, in between Pittsburgh and Ohio, on a farm. And we raise beef cows.

astead herndon

And while they had all heard about Trump’s conviction —

astead herndon

Our poll indicated that last time, you said that you were considered voting for Trump, but that if he were to be criminally convicted, you would think about switching over to vote for Biden. Is that correct?

speaker 4

Right. Well, it can change from one day to the next, right?

astead herndon

— it wasn’t really moving the needle, in terms of their vote.

speaker 4

As it stands right now, I’d probably vote for Biden. Who doesn’t want a federally legal marijuana?

astead herndon

Their opinions were based on other factors.

astead herndon

When we were looking at the polling data, it said that when they first called you in around April and May, that you said that you would be open to voting for Trump, but if there was a conviction, you would switch over to Biden. Is that correct?

speaker 5

[LAUGHS]: No, that’s not correct. And I was super clear that Trump was never an option.

astead herndon

And some of them seem to be hoping something else happens before November.

speaker 6

When the polling comes out closer to November, this seems to be like a thing with me where I really am like, I’m going to vote independent this time. I really, really am. I truly am. And then as it gets closer and I see how close Pennsylvania is, I’m like, I don’t know, you know? I don’t know if I’m going to go back to anything is better than Trump, and I will absolutely decide who I’m actually going to vote for as we get closer.

astead herndon

Then they’ll make up their minds.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

That’s “The Run-Up” for Thursday, June 6, 2024. Now, the rundown. On Tuesday of this week —

archived recording (joe biden)

So today, I’m moving past Republican obstruction and using the executive authorities available to me as president to do what I can on my own to address the border.

astead herndon

— President Biden announced an executive order restricting asylum claims at the US-Mexico border.

archived recording (joe biden)

He told the Republicans — it has been published widely by many of you — that he didn’t want to fix the issue. He wanted to use it to attack me.

astead herndon

He denounced Donald Trump in his speech, blaming the former president’s interference for the failure of a bipartisan immigration reform measure in the Senate earlier this year. Immigration is set to become a major issue on the campaign trail for both Trump and Biden, whose new executive order was criticized by members of his own party.

Also on Tuesday, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Washington, DC, held primary contests. Donald Trump, post felony conviction, continued his march toward the Republican nomination. Biden won in all of the Democratic presidential primaries, but continues to face some backlash on the ballot for his position on the war on Gaza. In New Jersey, uncommitted received 8 percent of the vote.

There are 39 days till the Republican National Convention, 74 days until the Democratic National Convention, and 152 days until the general election. We’ll see you next week.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

“The Run-Up” is reported by me, Astead Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It’s edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Lanman, and Elisheba Itoop. It was mixed by Sophia Lanman and fact-checked by Caitlin Love.

Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Maddy Masiello, Mahima Chablani, Nick Pittman, Jeffrey Miranda, Will Davis, Ruth Igielnik, and the entire Times polling team.

Do you have a question about the 2024 election? Email us at therunup@nytimes.com, or better yet, record your question using the Voice Memo app on your phone, and then send us the file. The email, again, is therunup@nytimes.com. And finally, if you like the show and want to get updates on latest episodes, follow our feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y’all.

Trump’s Guilty. Does Anyone Care? (2024)
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