Who will win the 2024 UK general election? (2024)

  1. Elections

The definitive forecast model – how the country will vote according to Britain Predicts

By Ben Walker

In 2019 Boris Johnson’s Conservatives scored an astonishing general election win, relegating the Labour party to one of its worst defeats in history. The slogan “Get Brexit Done” had currency, and with it Labour’s Corbyn Project was smashed.

The result was quickly written up as one that would take Labour a decade to unpick at the least.

But how would Britain vote if an election was held today?



The Conservatives have never been so close to the precipice


Does Labour’s underperformance in the local elections matter?


What are the local election races to look out for?

The 2024 general election of 4th July looks set to be a dramatic about-turn in British public opinion. But by how much, and where?

The Britain Predicts forecast model tells all. Here’s how the seats would split in an election held today.

Our model, set up in 2021, has form for accuracy in parliamentary by-elections. Now it has been refreshed to forecast more accurately how Britain would vote as a whole, accounting for the new boundaries, local party strength, and the growing importance of tactical voting.

Track the polling

Britain Predicts was built by Ben Walker of Britain Elects, and Michael Goodier and Josh Rayman of the New Statesman. The model turns poll shares into predicted seats in the House of Commons through a modified system of the strong transition model. This model is one of the more advanced daily predictors of a general election result.

The model, in anticipation of the general election, has been updated to account for the new boundaries as well granular party strength, using both local election data and historic modelling of how the seats likely voted as far back as 2005 to gauge who’s ahead in the horse-race really.

Tactical voting is a reality in any First Past The Post democracy, and it now features within the figures seen on your screen.


An election calculator is not a flawless way to predict an election, but a number of those online today have form for getting the results roughly right.

Britain Predicts recognises that the country doesn’t often vote or swing as one, and that there are people in some constituencies who are more susceptible to changing their vote than those living elsewhere.

The engine of the calculator is based on the strong transition model (STM) of predicting UK elections, created by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus. The advantage of this model over the simple uniform national swing (UNS), which is often used elsewhere, is that parties with a declining vote share nationally cannot get negative votes in any particular seat, or gain votes to more than 100 per cent of the total. Parties that fall, say, four points nationally, won’t necessarily fall four points locally. Instead, they fall multiplicatively, with those losses split among the advancing parties in proportion to their national gains.

Another modification the STM makes is dividing the parties up into strong and weak voters. Strong voters are less prone to shifting their support than weak voters. This means the model takes incumbency into account, as parties with large proportions of strong supporters in a seat will lose a smaller number of votes in that seat than under the standard model of UNS.

The New Statesman’s model makes several amendments to the STM. Firstly, we recognise that weak voters can be reinterpreted as swing voters, and so rather than applying a uniform threshold of 20 per cent to split voters into strong and weak based on seat turnout, we have created separate thresholds for each party in each seat. This is based on British Election Study figures showing 29-35 per cent of voters chose a party different to the one that they had previously voted for at the most recent general election. We then adjust this threshold based on how much a party’s vote share has historically fluctuated in each seat, both at a parliamentary level and a local council level.

We have also split the model up to treat Scotland and Wales separately, as they have single-nation parties (the SNP and Plaid Cymru).

It is worth noting that this is a model, and like every model, it has its limitations and assumptions. We have chosen not to link the Reform Party to the Brexit Party vote of 2019. This is for several reasons. Firstly, the Brexit Party solely targeted seats that would work against the chances of anti-Brexit parties in 2019, but the Reform Party intends to stand across the UK (which means that, theoretically, Reform could decline in vote share but still pick up votes in more seats than the Brexit Party did in 2019). Secondly, the local election results of May 2021, 22, 23 and 24 all showed a poor correlation between the Reform Party performance and the Brexit Party performance of 2019.

The decision also means that around 200 seats will have, in effect, “stranded voters”. These are people who voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 but will, theoretically, be mostly unmoved by model calculations. To solve this, we have sought to redistribute the Brexit Party vote to other parties based on how they would have voted had the Brexit Party not stood. This is based on polling of second preferences and post-election movement at the time.

Model queries can be directed to Ben Walker on ben.walker@newstatesman.co.uk

[See also: Mapped: The new constituency boundaries for England and Wales]

Topics in this article : Next UK general election polls , The popularity of politicians

Who will win the 2024 UK general election? (2024)


Who would make the best prime minister? ›

Ahead of the next UK election, due to be held on July 4, 2024, approximately 18 percent of people in Great Britain thought Rishi Sunak was the best choice for Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. By comparison, 33 percent of people preferred Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party.

What would labour do if they win? ›

A Labour government will invest in homegrown clean power, cut bills, create jobs, and give us independence from dictators like Putin, paid for in part by a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants.

Who are the tories in UK politics? ›

The Conservative and Unionist Party, commonly the Conservative Party and colloquially known as the Tories, is one of the two main political parties in the United Kingdom, along with the Labour Party.

What does Labour Party stand for? ›

The Labour Party is a political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists, and trade unionists. The Labour Party sits on the centre-left of the political spectrum.

Who is the best PM of the UK? ›

Winston Churchill is generally considered one of the greatest prime ministers for his leadership during the Second World War. Clement Attlee, who served as Labour Leader for over 20 years, is almost always very highly rated among prime ministers.

Who is the most Favourite Prime Minister in world? ›

10 World's most popular leader (2023): PM Modi tops the list. Rank 10| Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar - 36% approval ratings. Rank 09| Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez - 37% approval ratings. Rank 08| United States President Joe Biden - 37% approval ratings.

What does the UK Green party stand for? ›

The party's ideology combines environmentalism with left-wing economic policies, including well-funded and locally controlled public services.

Is labour left or right? ›

The Labour Party is a political party in the United Kingdom that is typically placed on the centre-left of the political spectrum.

What do the conservatives stand for? ›

The party has generally had liberal economic policies that favour free market economics. The party is British unionist, historically opposing Irish reunification, Scottish and Welsh independence, and is generally critical of devolution.

Why are Brits called Tories? ›

As a political term, Tory was an insult (derived from the Middle Irish word tóraidhe, modern Irish tóraí, meaning "outlaw", "robber", from the Irish word tóir, meaning "pursuit" since outlaws were "pursued men") that entered English politics during the Exclusion Bill crisis of 1678–1681.

What is the difference between whigs and tories? ›

In the beginning, the Whig Party generally tended to support the aristocratic families, the continued disenfranchisem*nt of Catholics and toleration of nonconformist Protestants (dissenters such as the Presbyterians), while the Tories generally favoured the minor gentry and people who were (relatively speaking) ...

What do conservatives believe? ›

They often advocate for a strong national defense, gun rights, capital punishment, and a defense of Western culture from perceived threats posed by communism and moral relativism. American conservatives tend to question epidemiology, climate change, and evolution more frequently than moderates or liberals.

What's the difference between a Tory and a conservative? ›

The group is the LGBT wing of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party. In the United Kingdom, the Conservative and Unionist Party is often colloquially referred to as the Tories, both by themselves and by opponents, and also in the media. Members and voters of the party are also often referred to as "Tories" as well.

Are Tories and conservatives the same thing? ›

In the latter part of the century, "Conservative" emerged as the official name. "Tory" was also used during the American War of Independence to refer to colonists who were loyal to the British monarchy. The term has also endured in Canada where centre-right Conservatives are known as Tories.

Who supports the Labour Party? ›

Socialist societies and affiliated trade unions are affiliated independent organisations, with voting and representational rights within the Labour Party.

Who would you want as Prime Minister? ›

Who was a great Prime Minister? ›

Shri Jawaharlal nehru

Pandit Nehru served as Prime Minister for 17 years from 1947 to 1964. He is regarded as one of the founders of modern India as he helped usher the country into the age of industrial and technological development.

Who is the top minister in the world? ›

Top Global Leaders 2023: Complete List. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has topped the list by garnering 76% percent of approval ratings which is way higher than US President Joe Biden who has received 40 percent ratings. This clearly shows the current popularity that the Indian PM holds worldwide.

Who is more powerful the crown or the prime minister? ›

As, by constitutional convention, the monarch acts on ministerial advice in all but exceptional cases, it is effectively ministers who exercise the royal prerogative. And it is, in reality, the prime minister who appoints, accepts the resignations of and dismisses ministers.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Jerrold Considine

Last Updated:

Views: 6101

Rating: 4.8 / 5 (78 voted)

Reviews: 85% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Jerrold Considine

Birthday: 1993-11-03

Address: Suite 447 3463 Marybelle Circles, New Marlin, AL 20765

Phone: +5816749283868

Job: Sales Executive

Hobby: Air sports, Sand art, Electronics, LARPing, Baseball, Book restoration, Puzzles

Introduction: My name is Jerrold Considine, I am a combative, cheerful, encouraging, happy, enthusiastic, funny, kind person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.